Last located 425 miles southeast of Grand Cayman with sustained winds of 35 mph, this system was expected to become a tropical depression as it builds strength.
It moved north at 7 mph, and the NHC’s morning forecast advisory predicted it could become a tropical storm by 1 p.m. on Nov. 4 and then a hurricane by 1 a.m. on Nov. 6.
A tropical storm has sustained winds of 39 mph to 73 mph, and a hurricane has winds of 74 mph or greater.
The storm was 425 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and was expected to pass by the island tonight and through Nov. 5.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the island.
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The NHC stated in its morning advisory that heavy rains were expected across the western Caribbean, with possible flooding for Jamaica and Cuba.
Hurricane-force winds and storm surges are expected in the Cayman Islands.
However, the NHC states there is “significant uncertainty in the intensity prediction” at this time.
Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane is expected to turn slightly westward, turning away from Florida and towards Louisiana, weakening back to a tropical storm by Nov. 9.
The NHC advises that people in the Florida Keys should monitor the system’s development.
If this storm continues to grow, it will become Tropical Storm Rafael, the 17th named storm. On Nov. 2, Tropical Storm Patty formed in the North Atlantic just west of the Azores.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.
NOAA predicted 17 to 24 named storms would form in the Atlantic—which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—in 2024.
