The fall of Assad could not come at a worse time for the Iranian regime, and the opposition feels this could be the beginning of the end for the mullahs.
News Analysis
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a massive blow for the regime in Tehran, and Maryam Rajavi, the leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), an umbrella group of Iranian opposition groups, has suggested the end could be near for the Iranian regime.
“With the overthrow of a regime that for the past 45 years helped the religious fascism in Iran commit the greatest crimes against the people of Syria, the people of Palestine, and Lebanon, the dark days of this region are turning the page, and the time has come for the overthrow of the mullahs’ regime,” Rajavi said on Dec. 8.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocratic state led by an unelected Supreme Leader, came into being in April 1979, after the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was ousted.
Kamran Dalir, a member of the NCRI’s foreign affairs committee, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement this week, “The overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship was a strategic blow to the mullahs’ regime.”
Dalir said Assad had been a “key ally” of the Iranian regime and his fall had significant political and strategic implications.
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“Syria’s role in supporting the Iranian regime’s exportation of terrorism and regional aggression over the past decades is irreplaceable for the regime,” added Dalir.
Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told The Epoch Times in an email on Dec. 11, “The loss of Syria is a huge blow to Iran as it constrains the territorial contiguity that allowed Iran to develop a land and air corridor for logistics and supplies for Hezbollah.”
“Likewise, it removes Syria as a reliable platform of its own which Iran used to attack Israel,” he added.
Many commentators in the region have predicted the Iranian regime might not survive the death of its 85-year-old supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
But could the Syria unrest, combined with other factors, mean a new Iranian revolution could come even sooner?
‘Perfect Storm’ Ahead
Brodsky said two issues, which are due to come to a head in the next few weeks, could reveal fatal weaknesses in the regime and “could create the perfect storm for protests.”
The first is a possible increase in the price of gasoline, and the second is a controversial new law on hijabs.
“The fundamental drivers of past protests in Iran remain unaddressed by the Iranian regime and have only gotten worse,” Brodsky told The Epoch Times.
“That being said, it would not be surprising to see the regime crack down harder on unrest at a moment when it is perceived weak abroad to stifle any dissent at home,” he added.
An estimated around 1,500 people were killed during those disturbances.
Since 2007 gasoline has been rationed in Iran, and there is a higher price, 30,000 rials ($0.26) per liter, for those who want to buy more than their ration.
The cost of gasoline is massively subsidized in Iran, costing the government treasury an estimated $50 billion a year.
With the economy hit by sanctions and the treasury emptied by military spending and foreign policy adventures, President Masoud Pezeshkian—who was elected in June—is under pressure to reduce the subsidies.
But doing so will inevitably trigger unrest, as will the enforcement of wearing hijabs.
A police motorcycle burns during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 19, 2022. West Asia News Agency via Reuters
A U.N. panel found Amini died as a result of “physical violence” used against her by the state.
Her demise sparked months of protests and the regime responded with brutality, leading to the deaths of more than 500 people and the detention of more than 22,000.
The law was first proposed last year by former President Ebrahim Raisi—who was killed in a helicopter crash in May—and was approved by Iran’s Guardian Council in September 2024.
But Pezeshkian has yet to trigger the law, which would make it enforceable by Iran’s morality police.
The hijab law is due to be handed to Pezeshkian on Dec. 13, and he is supposed to sign it into law within five days.
The Iranian regime has withstood protests against the hijab and gasoline prices in the past, but this time they come on the back of the loss of Syria, which itself came hot on the heels of military setbacks for Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, in Lebanon and the Gaza strip.
“Syria’s role in supporting the Iranian regime’s exportation of terrorism and regional aggression over the past decades is irreplaceable for the regime,” Dalir said.
“The lesson of Assad’s downfall is not to count on the hollow demonstration of strength by dictatorships like the ruling mullahs in Iran,” he said.
A Weaker Iran
He said the quick collapse of Syria’s military “underscores the Iranian dictatorship’s vulnerability in failing to preserve Assad” like it did in 2013.
He warned, “If the enemy attacks us and intends to take Syria or Khuzestan, the priority is to keep Syria. If we hold Syria, we can take back Khuzestan, but if we lose Syria, we cannot keep Tehran either.”
Khuzestan is an oil-rich and ethnically Arab province in southwest Iran, which Saddam Hussein hoped would rise up against “the Persians” and welcome Iraqi soldiers when he invaded Iran in 1980. It did not happen.
Joseph, speaking at a conference organized by the NCRI, said, “The people have had enough of the pervasive corruption, the squandering of national treasure and failed foreign interventions, and the endless repression of all the opposition.“
Joseph described Khamenei’s government as a “desperate regime that long ago lost all legitimacy with its own people.”
He said while they show “no indication of turning into an insurgency,” they put pressure on the regime, undermining its ability to respond.
“The United States and its allies and partners in the region should capitalize on the positive momentum created by the fall of Assad,” Carl said.
An Iranian flag hangs as smoke rises after what the Iranian media said was an Israeli strike on a building close to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, 2024. Firas Makdesi/Reuters
There are echoes of Iran’s own past too.
In January 1979, after a year of increasingly large protests against his rule, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, finally flew into exile in Egypt, and two weeks later Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to usher in the era of theocratic rule.
But the Iranian regime cannot be written off and has considerable support, especially among the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
On Dec. 10, the commander of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, denied the Iranian regime had been weakened following the fall of Assad.
Iranian state media said Salami told members of the country’s parliament, in a closed session, “We have not been weakened and Iran’s power has not diminished.”
Salami instead continued to threaten Israel, saying, “The overthrow of the Zionist regime is not off the agenda.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
