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When is the economic hurricane set to make landfall?


As economic clouds gather ominously, recent indicators point to a perfect storm on the horizon. Credit cards are sounding the alarm, with serious delinquencies hitting their highest levels since 2009, according to TransUnion. The darkening economic skies extend to the housing sector, where multi-family housing delinquency rates have surpassed the grim levels witnessed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), as reported by Trahan MR.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, issued a stark reminder on CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Report, cautioning that markets can change their course swiftly. Drawing parallels to the overconfident sentiments of 1972 before a crash, Dimon hinted at the need for vigilance amid the current economic landscape.

Adding to the ominous warnings, Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist, Ellen Zentner, predicts a hard-landing recession as the full impact of the Federal Reserve’s tightening measures is yet to be fully felt. Zentner acknowledges the absence of imminent recession data but underscores the inevitability of a hard landing in the face of cumulative impacts building over time.

“The point that Dimon makes is that there are these cumulative impacts that build over time, and we are in the camp that we haven’t yet seen all of the tightening impacts from monetary policy,” warns Zentner. The tightening campaign, geopolitical conflicts, and sustained high-interest rates pose significant risks to the economy.


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