Since 2000, a majority of Chinese home sales occurred post-2015; 38% post-2018, with falling prices.

• High Volume of Recent Sales: Since 2000, a large proportion of residential property sales in China have taken place in recent years:
  • 56% of all sales occurred after 2015.
  • 38% of all sales occurred after 2018.
• Falling Property Prices: Second-hand property prices have fallen back to their 2018 levels.
• Potential Negative Equity: Due to the drop in property prices, nearly 40% of homeowners who bought properties after 2018 may now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth (referred to as being “underwater” on their mortgages).

This situation is concerning because a significant portion of homeowners might face financial difficulties if their property values remain below the amount they owe on their mortgages.

A scary statistics:

Since 2000, 56% of all residential property sales in China happened after 2015, and 38% of them occured after 2018.

With second-hand property prices falling to 2018 levels, it means that nearly 40% of homeowners may be going underwater on their mortgages. pic.twitter.com/DXqjLgOQhc

— Shanghai Macro Strategist (@ShanghaiMacro) June 12, 2024